And Now, Back to Charles (Barkley) with the Weather

We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:

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So, Charles Barkley is a semi-wonderful, candid announcer, and we fully respect his NBA career. A gifted meteorologist, however, Barkley is not — but that may be a good thing:

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Bless Manti Te’o and his silly story. Bless Katie Couric for devoting time to ask the Notre Dame football star about his silly story. But most of all, bless whoever put together this catchy and entertaining auto-tuning of the entire boondoggle:

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Australia, you are scary:

And finally, this is a baby raccoon who has learned to give people high-fives. Send him your way, because you, you rock star, just made it through a Monday: 

Weather News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Why haven't we learned from fires?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Pyrotechnics, overcrowding, poor exits have contributed to tragic fires in recent years


• You would think the world would have learned from past incidents, John Barylick says


• Concertgoers have to be their own fire marshals, he says

Editor's note: John Barylick, author of "Killer Show," a book on the 2003 Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island, is an attorney who represented victims in wrongful death and personal injury cases arising from the fire.

(CNN) -- Sunday morning we awoke to breaking news of another tragic nightclub fire, this time in Brazil. At last report the death toll exceeded 230.

This tragedy is not without precedent. Next month will mark the 10th anniversary of a similar nightclub fire in Rhode Island. At this sad time, it's appropriate to reflect on what we've learned from club fires -- and what we haven't.

Rhode Island's Station nightclub fire of 2003, in which 100 concertgoers lost their lives, began when fireworks set off by Great White, an 80s heavy metal band, ignited flammable packing foam on the club's walls.

Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history

John Barylick

Panicked patrons stampeded toward the club's main exit, and a fatal pileup ensued. Contributing to the tragedy were illegal use of pyrotechnics, overcrowding and a wall covering that would have failed even the most rudimentary flammability tests.

Video images of the Station fire were broadcast worldwide: A concert begins; the crowd's mood changes from merry, to curious, to concerned, to horrified -- in less than a minute. You'd think the world would have learned from it. You would be wrong.

The following year, the Republica Cromanon nightclub in Argentina went up in flames, killing 194 people. The club was made to hold about 1,000 people, but it was estimated that more than 3,000 fans were packed inside the night of the fire, which began when fans began lighting flares that caught the roof on fire.

Echoes of the past: Rhode Island victims 'can't help but watch'

Then, in January 2009, at least 64 New Year's revelers lost their lives in a nightclub in Bangkok, Thailand, after fire ignited its ceiling. Many were crushed in a rush to get out of the club. In December of that same year, a fire in a Russian nightclub, ignited by pyrotechnics, killed 156 people. Overcrowding, poor exits, and indoor fireworks all played roles in these tragedies; yet no one bothered to learn from mistakes of the past.

While responsibility for concert disasters unquestionably lies with venue operators, performers and promoters, ultimately, we, as patrons of clubs and concerts, can enhance our own safety by taking a few simple steps. The National Fire Protection Association urges concertgoers to:

• Be observant. Is the concert venue rundown or well-maintained? Does the staff look well-trained?

• As you proceed to your seat, observe how long the process takes. Could you reverse it in a hurry? Do you pass through pinch points? Is furniture in the way?

• Once seated, take note of the nearest exit. (In an emergency, most people try to exit by the door they entered, which is usually not the closest, and is always overcrowded.) Then, share the location of that nearest exit with your entire party. Agree that at the first sign of trouble, you will all proceed to it without delay.

• Once the show begins, remain vigilant. If you think there's a problem, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Do not stay to "get your money's worth" despite concerns about safety. Do not remain to locate that jacket or bag you placed somewhere. No concert is worth your life. Better to read about an incident the next day than be counted as one of its statistics.

Read more: How to protect yourself in a crowd

To be sure, all fire codes must be vigorously enforced, and club and concert hall operators must be held to the highest standards. A first step is banning indoor pyrotechnics in all but the largest, stadium-type venues.

But, ultimately, we are our own best "fire marshals" when it comes to avoiding, and escaping, dangerous situations. We can still enjoy shows. But it is up to us to look out for our own safety.

In coming days, Rhode Islanders will follow the unfolding news from Brazil with a sense of queasy deja vu -- the rising body counts, the victim identification process, the grieving families, and the assigning (and dodging) of blame. If only they had learned from our tragedy.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Barylick.

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Shootings wound 8 from Hermosa to South Shore

At least eight people were shot across Chicago overnight, including two men wounded at a West Side gas station where a clerk was slain last summer, authorities said.

The men, 31 and 34, were sitting in a car in front of the gas station in the 3300 block of West Washington Boulevard in East Garfield Park around 10:30 p.m., according to police.

Someone parked a van in the street, got out, walked up and shot them, police said. They were taken to Stroger Hospital and were expected to survive, police said.

In July, a clerk was shot and killed at the station about two hours before his shift was to end, according to police and the man's family.

In other shootings:

• About 2 a.m. a 26-year-old man was shot above the knee after he stepped onto a porch in the 2200 block of West 71st Street in the West Englewood neighborhood to smoke, police said. He was taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center and was reported stable.

•  Someone inside a car shot at a 37-year-old man in the 2400 block of West Huron Street in the West Town neighborhood about 12:15 a.m., police said. He was taken to Stroger Hospital.

•  Another man, 38, was shot while driving in the 7200 block of South Champlain Avenue in the Park Manor neighborhood about 9:45 p.m. Monday. He crashed into a pole after suffering a wound to the lower back, police said, and was taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center.

• Just before 9 p.m., someone shot a 23-year-old man in the abdomen in the 8300 block of South Carpenter Street, police said. The man was taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center from near 83rd and Morgan Street, where he had walked after getting shot.

•  A 26-year-old man who had been shot in the right arm in the 2100 block of North Tripp Avenue in the Hermosa neighborhood was found a couple blocks away on Fullerton Avenue around 7 p.m., police said. He was taken to Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center in good condition, police said.

•  A 20-year-old man was in serious condition after someone shot him in the back in the 6200 block of South Artesian Avenue about 5:10 p.m. Monday in the Chicago Lawn neighborhood.  He was taken to Mount Sinai Hospital, according to the Chicago Fire Department.

pnickeas@tribune.com
Twitter: @peternickeas

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Army says political tussle taking Egypt to brink

CAIRO, Egypt (Reuters) - Egypt's army chief said political strife was pushing the state to the brink of collapse - a stark warning from the institution that ran the country until last year as Cairo's first freely elected leader struggles to contain bloody street violence.

General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, appointed by President Mohamed Mursi last year to head the military, added in a statement on Tuesday that one of the primary goals of deploying troops in cities on the Suez Canal was to protect the waterway that is vital for Egypt's economy and world trade.

Sisi's comments, published on an official army Facebook page, followed 52 deaths in the past week of disorder and highlighted the mounting sense of crisis facing Egypt and its Islamist head of state who is struggling to fix a teetering economy and needs to prepare Egypt for a parliamentary election in a few months that is meant to cement the new democracy.

Violence largely subsided on Tuesday, although some youths again hurled rocks at police lines in Cairo near Tahrir Square.

It seemed unlikely that Sisi was signaling the army wants to take back the power it held for six decades since the end of the colonial era and through an interim period after the overthrow of former air force chief Hosni Mubarak two years ago.

But his message sent a powerful message that Egypt's biggest institution, with a huge economic as well as security role and a recipient of massive direct U.S. subsidies, is worried about the fate of the nation, after five days of turmoil in major cities.

"The continuation of the struggle of the different political forces ... over the management of state affairs could lead to the collapse of the state," said General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who is also defense minister in the government Mursi appointed.

He said the economic, political and social challenges facing the country represented "a real threat to the security of Egypt and the cohesiveness of the Egyptian state" and the army would remain "the solid and cohesive block" on which the state rests.

Sisi was picked by Mursi after the army handed over power to the new president in June once Mursi had sacked Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, in charge of Egypt during the transition and who had also been Mubarak's defense minister for 20 years.

RALLY AT FUNERALS

After almost seven months since Mursi took office, Egypt politics have become even more deeply polarized.

Opponents spurned a call by Mursi for talks on Monday to try to end the violence. Instead, protesters have rallied in Cairo and Alexandria, and in the three Suez Canal cities - Port Said, Ismailia and Suez - where Mursi imposed emergency rule.

On Tuesday, thousands were again on the streets of Port Said to mourn the deaths of two people in the latest clashes there, taking the total toll in Mediterranean port alone to 42 people. Most were killed by gunshots in a city where weapons are rife.

Mohamed Ezz, a Port Said resident speaking by telephone, heard heavy gunfire through the night. "Gunshots damaged the balcony of my flat, so I went to stay with my brother," he said.

Residents in the three canal cities had taken to the streets in protest at a nightly curfew now in place there.

In Cairo on Tuesday afternoon, police again fired teargas as stone-throwing youths in a street near Tahrir Square, the centre of the 2011 uprising. But the clashes were less intense than previous days and traffic was able to cross the area. Street cleaners swept up the remains of burnt tires and other debris.

Street flare-ups are a common occurrence in divided Egypt, frustrating many people desperate for order and economic growth.

Although the general's comments were notably blunt, Egypt's military has voiced similar concerns in the past, pledging to protect the nation. But it has refused to be drawn back into a direct political role after its reputation as a neutral party took a pounding during the 17 months after Mubarak fell.

"Egyptians are really alarmed by what is going on," said Cairo-based analyst Elijah Zarwan, adding that the army was reflecting that broader concern among the wider public.

"But I don't think it should be taken as a sign that the military is on the verge of stepping in and taking back the reins of government," he added.

In December, Sisi offered to host a national dialogue when Mursi and the rivals were again at loggerheads and the streets were aflame. But the invitation was swiftly withdrawn before the meeting went ahead, apparently because the army was wary of becoming embroiled again in Egypt's polarized politics.

LEGITIMACY CHALLENGED

Protests initially flared during the second anniversary of the uprising that erupted on January 25, 2011 and toppled Mubarak 18 days later. They have been exacerbated by riots in Port Said where residents were angered when a court sentenced to death several people from the city over deadly soccer violence.

Since the 2011 revolt, Islamists who Mubarak spent his 30-year rule suppressing have won two referendums, two parliamentary elections and a presidential vote.

But that legitimacy has been challenged by an opposition that accuses Mursi of imposing a new form of authoritarianism. Mursi's supporters says protesters want to overthrow Egypt's first ever democratically elected leader by undemocratic means.

The army has already been deployed in Port Said and Suez and the government agreed a measure to let soldiers arrest civilians as part of the state of emergency. Sisi reiterated that the army's role would be support the police in restoring order.

The instability has provoked unease in Western capitals, where officials worry about the direction of a powerful regional player that has a peace deal with Israel. The United States condemned the bloodshed and called on Egyptian leaders to make clear violence was not acceptable.

Mursi's invitation to rivals to a national dialogue with Islamists on Monday was spurned by the main opposition National Salvation Front coalition, which described it as "cosmetic".

The only liberal politician who attended, Ayman Nour, told Egypt's al-Hayat channel after the meeting ended late on Monday that attendees agreed to meet again in a week.

He said Mursi had promised to look at changes to the constitution requested by the opposition but did not consider the opposition's request for a government of national unity. Mursi's pushing through last month of a new constitution which critics see as too Islamic remains a bone of contention.

When Mursi announced he was imposing a state of emergency on the Suez Canal cities he pledged to confront threats to security "with force and firmness." But Some activists said Mursi's measures to try to impose control could backfire.

"Martial law, state of emergency and army arrests of civilians are not a solution to the crisis," said Ahmed Maher of the April 6 movement that helped galvanize the 2011 uprising. "All this will do is further provoke the youth. The solution has to be a political one that addresses the roots of the problem."

(Additional reporting by Yasmine Saleh and Omar Filmy in Cairo, Yusri Mohamed in Ismailia and Abdelrahman Youssef in Alexandria; Writing by Edmund Blair; Editing by Alastair Macdonald)

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Stock futures point to gains after data and Caterpillar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a modestly higher open on Monday following strong data and results from Caterpillar, though gains were slight after a rally that took the S&P 500 above 1,500 for the first time in more than five years.

A strong start to the earnings season has boosted equities, with major averages rising for four straight weeks. The S&P has gained for eight straight days, its longest winning streak in eight years.

Caterpillar Inc rose 2.5 percent to $98 in premarket trading after the Dow component reported adjusted fourth-quarter earnings that beat expectations, though revenue was slightly below forecasts. The heavy machinery maker also said it remained cautious on the economy despite recent improvements.

"You can't find more of a global bellwhether than Cat, and people are pleased with the number, which suggests there could be less concern about slowing growth in China after this," said Wayne Kaufman, chief market analyst at John Thomas Financial in New York.

Thomson Reuters data through Friday showed that of the 147 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings so far, 68 percent exceeded expectations. Since 1994, 62 percent of companies have topped expectations, while the average over the past four quarters stands at 65 percent.

Yahoo Inc reports after the closing bell, and could face heightened expectations following strong results at Google Inc last week.

S&P 500 futures rose 2 points and were about even with fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 22 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2 points.

The S&P 500 closed at its highest since December 10, 2007, and the Dow ended at its highest since October 31, 2007. Over the past four weeks, the S&P has jumped 7.2 percent, suggesting markets may be vulnerable to a pullback if news disappoints.

Durable goods jumped 4.6 percent in December, a pace that far outstripped expectations for a rise of 1.8 percent.

"We continue to have a parade of better-than-expected economic reports. All-in-all it's a good picture. I think there's a good chance we've reached a point of recognition where people don't think the economy will crater," Kaufman said.

In addition to earnings, equities have also risen on an agreement in Washington to extend the government's borrowing power. On Monday, Fitch Ratings said that agreement removed the near-term risk to the country's 'AAA' rating.

Previously, the agency said the lack of an agreement would prompt a review of the sovereign rating.

In company news, Keryx Biopharmaceuticals Inc said a late-stage trial of its experimental kidney disease drug met the main study goal of reducing phosphate levels in blood, sending shares up 41 percent to $4.84 in premarket trading.

Bargain hunters may look to Apple Inc in the first session after the tech giant lost its coveted title as the largest U.S. company by market capitalization to Exxon Mobil Corp . On Friday, Apple's market cap fell to $413 billion, down roughly $250 billion from its September peak. Apple's fall is about equal to the entire value of Google Inc .

"Apple is pretty attractive right now, so you may see an opportunity here," said Chris Bertelsen, who helps oversee $1.5 billion as chief investment officer of Global Financial Private Capital in Sarasota, Florida. "Those who think the stock is dead have made a big mistake."

U.S. stocks rose on Friday, lifted by strong results from such companies as Procter & Gamble . The rise put the S&P 500 about 4.1 percent away from its all-time closing high of 1,565.15 on October 9, 2007.

(Editing by W Simon and Kenneth Barry)

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Tiger headed toward another win at Torrey

SAN DIEGO (AP) — The Pacific air was so cold at the end of a 10-hour day at Torrey Pines that Tiger Woods thrust both hands in the front pockets of his rain pants as he walked off the course at the Farmers Insurance Open.

It was a fitting image. Woods made a marathon day look like he was out for a stroll.

Staked to a two-shot lead going into the third round of this fog-delayed tournament, Woods drove the ball where he was aiming and was hardly ever out of position. Even with a bogey on the final hole — the easiest on the back nine — Woods still had a 3-under 69 and expanded his lead by two shots.

In the seven holes he played in the fourth round later Sunday afternoon, Woods hit the ball all over the course and still made three birdies to add two more strokes to his lead.

Thanks to the fog that wiped out an entire day of golf on Saturday, the Farmers Insurance Open didn't stand a chance of finishing on Sunday.

Woods just made it look like it was over.

He had a six-shot lead with 11 holes to play going into the conclusion of the final round on Monday. The two guys chasing him were Brandt Snedeker, the defending champion, and Nick Watney, who won at Torrey Pines in 2008. Neither was waving a white flag. Both understood how much the odds were stacked against them.

"I've got a guy at the top of the leaderboard that doesn't like giving up leads," Snedeker said. "So I have to go catch him."

"All we can do tomorrow is go out and try to make him think about it a little bit and see what happens," Watney said.

And then there was Erik Compton, a two-time heart transplant recipient who had a birdie-eagle finish in the third round that put him in third place through 54 holes, still five shots behind Woods. Someone asked Compton about trying to chase Woods. He laughed.

"I'm trying to chase myself," he said.

Woods was at 17-under par for the tournament, and more than just a six-shot lead was in his corner.

He finished the third round at 14-under 202, making it the 16th time on the PGA Tour that he had at least a four-shot lead going into the final round. His record on the PGA Tour with the outright lead after 54 holes is 38-2, the exceptions being Ed Fiori in 1996 when Woods was a 20-year-old rookie and Y.E. Yang in the 2009 PGA Championship.

Woods attributed his big lead to the "whole package."

"I've driven the ball well, I've hit my irons well, and I've chipped and putted well," he said. "Well, I've hit good putts. They all haven't gone in."

Woods has a good history of Monday finishes, starting with Torrey Pines. It was on this course along the coast north of La Jolla that Woods won a 19-hole playoff against Rocco Mediate to capture the 2008 U.S. Open for his 14th major.

He also won the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am on a Monday in 2000 when he rallied from seven shots behind with seven holes to play. He won his lone title in The Players Championship on a Monday, along with a five-shot win in the Memorial in 2000, and a scheduled Monday finish in the Deutsche Bank Championship outside Boston.

Woods even gets to sleep in.

A Monday finish because of weather typically resumes in the morning so players can get to the next tournament. CBS Sports, however, decided it wanted to televise the conclusion, and so play won't begin until 2 p.m. EST. That decision might have been based on Woods being headed toward victory — just a hunch.

Woods already has won seven times at Torrey Pines, including the U.S. Open. That matches his PGA Tour record at Bay Hill and Firestone (Sam Snead won the Greensboro Open eight times, four each on a different course).

The tournament isn't over, and Woods doesn't see it that way.

"I've got to continue with executing my game plan. That's the idea," he said. "I've got 11 holes to play, and I've got to play them well."

He seized control with his 69 in the third round that gave him a four-shot lead, and he might have put this away in the two hours he played before darkness stopped play.

He badly missed the first fairway to the left, but had a gap through the Torrey pines to the green and had a two-putt par. He missed his next shot so far to the left that the ball wound up in the first cut of the adjacent sixth fairway. He still managed a simple up-and-down for par.

After a 10-foot birdie on the par-3 third, Woods couldn't afford to go left off the tee again because of the PGA Tour's largest water hazard — the Pacific Ocean. So he went miles right, beyond a cart path, a tree blocking his way to the green. He hit a cut shot that came up safely short of the green, and then chipped in from 40 feet for birdie.

"I was able to play those holes in 2-under par," Woods said. "And then I hit three great drives right in a row."

One of them wasn't that great — it was in the right rough, the ball so buried that from 214 yards that Woods hit a 5-wood. It scooted down the fairway and onto the green, setting up a two-putt birdie the stretched his lead to six shots. And after another good drive, the horn sounded to stop play. Because it was due to weather, Woods was able to finish the hole, and he two-putted for par.

Eleven holes on Monday were all that were keeping him from his 75th career win on the PGA Tour, and delivering a message to the rest of golf that there could be more of this to follow no matter what the golf course.

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Space Junk Menace: How to Deal with Orbital Debris

The saga of what steps that must be taken to deal with the evolving threat of Earth-circling orbital debris is a work in progress.  This menacing problem — and the possible cleanup solutions — is international in scope.

Space junk is an assortment of objects in Earth orbit that is a mix of everything from spent rocket stages, derelict satellites, chunks of busted up spacecraft to paint chips, springs and bolts. A satellite crash in February 2009, for example, marked the first accidental hypervelocity crash between two intact artificial satellites in Earth orbit. That cosmic crash created significant debris — a worrisome amount of leftover bits and pieces.

Against this backdrop of untidiness in space and the global worry among spacefaring countries it causes, experts continue to tackle the issue of exactly what to do about orbital debris. A number of rules have been pondered to address the space debris problem, from regulations that attempt to cut down on the shedding of new debris to better tracking of the human-made refuge, as well as scavenging concepts including fishing nets, lasers and garbage scows.

But how to best characterize the orbital debris dilemma, and its future, also stirs up debate and heated dialogue.

Point of no return

The clutter in Earth orbit is a situation that will continue to worsen, according to Marshall Kaplan, founder and principal of Launchspace in Bethesda, Md.

“The problem is that we’ve already fallen off that cliff,” Kaplan told SPACE.com. “That’s the reality of it and people don’t want to admit that reality.” [Photos of Space Junk & Cleanup Ideas]

Spending millions of dollars to retrieve space junk isn’t effective, Kaplan said.

Now, ways to better track and identify space debris are being devised. Low-Earth orbit is where the main problem is — from roughly 435 miles (700 kilometers) to about 745 miles (1,200 km), he said.

“It’s a serious, serious challenge,” Kaplan said. “This is not a U.S. problem … it’s everybody’s problem. And most of the people that produced the debris, the serious offenders, like Russia, China, and the United States, are not going to spend that kind of money. It’s just not a good investment.”

While the creation of orbiting junk continues rise with each rocket launch, there is no market for tackling the issue directly, Kaplan said.

“We’ve reached the point of no return. The debris will continue to get worse in terms of collision threats … even if not another satellite were launched, the problem will continue to get worse,” he added.

Speeding debris crashes

Kaplan said the frequency of collisions between active satellites and debris pieces is going to increase.

The real question, Kaplan said, is not what everyone is going to do about debris. Rather, the true question is what needs to be done about active satellites in harm’s way of speeding riffraff.

“My prediction is that we are going to evacuate the areas of high debris density. It’s just too dangerous to operate there. We’re going to need to reinvent how we use space,” Kaplan said. [Worst Space Debris Events of All Time]

In the case of large national security satellite assets, one option may be to distribute smaller satellites in lower altitudes, Kaplan added. These multiple layers of spacecraft would collectively create virtual products, such as imagery and other intelligence data. The users of this information would receive the same kind of data, but from a different satellite constellation, he said.

As one step toward that future, Kaplan is working with multiple universities to help establish new research centers on space debris and a next-generation national security space architecture.

Environmental stability

Darren McKnight, technical director for Integrity Applications Incorporated, headquartered in Chantilly, Va., suggested that the current debate on active debris removal and the evolution of the debris environment is still developing.

McKnight said that, currently, policymakers and engineers examine environmental stability, preventing the cascading of derelict collisions from increasing exponentially over the next century. This scenario, known as the “Kessler Syndrome,” is the primary metric to judge how many derelicts need to be removed and when they should be removed.

The Kessler Syndrome is one in which the density of objects in low Earth orbit is high enough that collisions between objects could cause a cascade. Each collision generates space debris, which increases the likelihood of further collisions. [Solar Sails Could Sweep Up Space Junk (Video)]

“The overall issue is that as we continue to consider active debris removal options, I question whether or not environment stability is the only metric to be tracking,” McKnight told SPACE.com.

Lethal space debris

McKnight, along with company colleague Frank Di Pentino, propose that the probability of satellite failure from impact from non-trackable, yet lethal debris fragments — in the 5 millimeter to 10 centimeter size range — is a more appropriate metric. The reason is because it directly reflects harmful effects of space debris on space operations. Furthermore, these effects are likely to occur much sooner than observable manifestations of the cascading effect.

McKnight and Di Pentino’s research suggests that any mitigation scheme, be it just-in-time collision avoidance, active debris removal or other methods, cannot rely on a model that does not account for projected add rates, new launches on other factors. They contend that collision rate is “not a sufficient metric” for assessing operational risk.

Wanted: A long-term plan

There is much work to do regarding orbital debris, said Donald Kessler, chair of the 2011 National Research Council (NRC) report “Limiting Future Collision Risk to Spacecraft: An Assessment of NASA’s Meteoroid and Orbital Debris Programs.” He is a retired head of NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office and is a space debris and meteoroid consultant in Asheville, N.C.

Kessler said that the NRC committee that produced the report strongly felt that what was missing from the programs was a long-term strategic plan — one that outlined a path that eventually determines how  manage future space operations in a way that preserves the environment.

“However, this is not simply a NASA issue … it is an international issue, and will require a carefully coordinated effort,” Kessler said.

Can the space junk problem be solved?

NASA and the international community, Kessler said, “have already done enough research to know that the environment will continue to get worse if we continue on the same path … the only environmental issue to be resolved is how quickly the environment in various regions deteriorates.”

The international community, through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), has been very active in understanding the current environmental trends, sharing information and establishing internationally recognized mitigation requirements.

However, Kessler said that current mitigation practices are insufficient, even with 100 percent compliance. Missing in action is a plan to determine what do about the predicted worsening space environment, he said — that is, how to stop or reverse the trend of increased debris resulting from increased collisions.

Sustainable environment

Kessler added that the fundamental issues to be resolved are:

• How do we minimize the possibility of future high-velocity collisions between spacecraft and upper stage rockets?


• If we cannot eliminate that prospect, how do we clean up after a collision?

“Removal from orbit, collision avoidance, satellite servicing and repair, satellite recycling in orbit, debris storage locations, change to using a ‘stable plane’ at higher altitudes especially in Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) … are all possibilities,” Kessler added. “Some are mutually exclusive and may not be appropriate at all altitudes, while others could combine to be more effective.”

Still to be sorted out is what type of legal structure might be needed in order to implement any plan, Kessler said.

“I believe it is time that the international community takes a serious look at the future of space operations,” Kessler said. “There’s need to begin a process to answer these questions and determine which path will most effectively provide a sustainable environment for spacecraft in Earth orbit.”

Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and a past editor-in-chief of the National Space Society’s Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He has written for SPACE.com since 1999.

Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Why haven't we learned from fires?

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Pyrotechnics, overcrowding, poor exits have contributed to tragic fires in recent years


• You would think the world would have learned from past incidents, John Barylick says


• Concertgoers have to be their own fire marshals, he says

Editor's note: John Barylick, author of "Killer Show," a book on the 2003 Station nightclub fire in Rhode Island, is an attorney who represented victims in wrongful death and personal injury cases arising from the fire.

(CNN) -- Sunday morning we awoke to breaking news of another tragic nightclub fire, this time in Brazil. At last report the death toll exceeded 230.

This tragedy is not without precedent. Next month will mark the 10th anniversary of a similar nightclub fire in Rhode Island. At this sad time, it's appropriate to reflect on what we've learned from club fires -- and what we haven't.

Rhode Island's Station nightclub fire of 2003, in which 100 concertgoers lost their lives, began when fireworks set off by Great White, an 80s heavy metal band, ignited flammable packing foam on the club's walls.

John Barylick

Panicked patrons stampeded toward the club's main exit, and a fatal pileup ensued. Contributing to the tragedy were illegal use of pyrotechnics, overcrowding and a wall covering that would have failed even the most rudimentary flammability tests.

Video images of the Station fire were broadcast worldwide: A concert begins; the crowd's mood changes from merry, to curious, to concerned, to horrified -- in less than a minute. You'd think the world would have learned from it. You would be wrong.

Deadly blazes: Nightclub tragedies in recent history

The following year, the Republica Cromanon nightclub in Argentina went up in flames, killing 194 people. The club was made to hold about 1,000 people, but it was estimated that more than 3,000 fans were packed inside the night of the fire, which began when fans began lighting flares that caught the roof on fire.

Then, in January 2009, at least 64 New Year's revelers lost their lives in a nightclub in Bangkok, Thailand, after fire ignited its ceiling. Many were crushed in a rush to get out of the club. In December of that same year, a fire in a Russian nightclub, ignited by pyrotechnics, killed 156 people. Overcrowding, poor exits, and indoor fireworks all played roles in these tragedies; yet no one bothered to learn from mistakes of the past.

While responsibility for concert disasters unquestionably lies with venue operators, performers and promoters, ultimately, we, as patrons of clubs and concerts, can enhance our own safety by taking a few simple steps. The National Fire Protection Association urges concertgoers to:

• Be observant. Is the concert venue rundown or well-maintained? Does the staff look well-trained?

• As you proceed to your seat, observe how long the process takes. Could you reverse it in a hurry? Do you pass through pinch points? Is furniture in the way?

• Once seated, take note of the nearest exit. (In an emergency, most people try to exit by the door they entered, which is usually not the closest, and is always overcrowded.) Then, share the location of that nearest exit with your entire party. Agree that at the first sign of trouble, you will all proceed to it without delay.

• Once the show begins, remain vigilant. If you think there's a problem, LEAVE IMMEDIATELY. Do not stay to "get your money's worth" despite concerns about safety. Do not remain to locate that jacket or bag you placed somewhere. No concert is worth your life. Better to read about an incident the next day than be counted as one of its statistics.

Read more: How to protect yourself in a crowd

To be sure, all fire codes must be vigorously enforced, and club and concert hall operators must be held to the highest standards. A first step is banning indoor pyrotechnics in all but the largest, stadium-type venues.

But, ultimately, we are our own best "fire marshals" when it comes to avoiding, and escaping, dangerous situations. We can still enjoy shows. But it is up to us to look out for our own safety.

In coming days, Rhode Islanders will follow the unfolding news from Brazil with a sense of queasy deja vu -- the rising body counts, the victim identification process, the grieving families, and the assigning (and dodging) of blame. If only they had learned from our tragedy.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of John Barylick.

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Bipartisan immigration plan would grant legal status to most

A bipartisan group of senators has agreed on a plan to grant legal status to most of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., which could form the basis for a far-reaching overhaul of immigration laws this year.

WASHINGTON — A bipartisan group of senators has agreed on a plan to grant legal status to most of the estimated 11 million illegal immigrants in the U.S., which could form the basis for a far-reaching overhaul of immigration laws this year.

The Senate blueprint, drafted during weeks of closed-door meetings by leading senators from each party, will probably set parameters for a contentious legislative battle over the next several months. The eight senators involved intend to release their proposal publicly Monday. A copy was provided to The Times' Washington bureau on Sunday by Senate aides.

The Senate plan is more conservative than President Obama's proposal, which he plans to unveil Tuesday in a speech in Las Vegas. But its provisions for legalizing millions of undocumented immigrants go further than measures that failed to advance in Congress in previous years — a reminder of how swiftly the politics of immigration have shifted since Latino voters' strong influence in the November election.

In terms of the number of people who would potentially receive legal status, it would be more than three times larger than the amnesty plan passed under President Reagan in 1986, which legalized about 3 million immigrants.

The senators involved hope to begin committee votes on a bill as soon as March. The timing of their proposal and Obama's, coupled with that schedule — quick by Senate standards — could set up a dynamic in which an eventual bill falls somewhere between the bipartisan plan and the president's.

Latino activists and other advocates for comprehensive immigration reform have pushed for quick action in the Senate, hoping that a large bipartisan vote for a bill that includes a path to citizenship would put pressure on the House.

Many members of the House Republican majority represent districts where proposals for legalization remain highly unpopular, but many Republicans also worry about the political price if the party takes the blame for killing immigration reform.

The Senate proposal would allow most of those in the country illegally to obtain probationary legal status immediately by paying a fine and back taxes and passing a background check. That would make them eligible to work and live in the U.S. They could earn a green card — permanent residency — after the government certifies that the U.S.-Mexican border has become secure, but might face a lengthy process before becoming citizens.

Obama is expected to push for a faster citizenship process that would not be conditional on border security standards being met first. The structure of the citizenship process will probably be among the most hotly debated parts of any immigration plan.

Less-controversial provisions would tighten requirements on employers to check the immigration status of new workers; increase the number of visas for high-skilled jobs; provide green cards automatically to people who earn master's degrees or PhDs in science, technology or math at U.S. universities; and create an agricultural guest-worker program.

On Sunday, a White House spokesman said the president was "pleased that progress is being made with bipartisan support."

"At the same time, he will not be satisfied until there is meaningful reform, and he will continue to urge Congress to act," Obama spokesman Clark Stevens said.

Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), who heads the Senate subcommittee that handles immigration legislation, briefed the White House on Sunday, according to a Senate aide who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

The eight senators scrambled over the weekend to come to an agreement before Obama unveiled his plan, hoping to head off any potential Republican backlash against a White House proposal and show common ground.

At a news conference Sunday in New York, Schumer noted that "the devil is in the details," but said that he and the other senators in the group had made good progress.

"I'm impressed with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle over their desire to meet in the middle. We can't pass it without both Democrats and Republicans," said Schumer, adding that he and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) had "developed a little bit of a friendship" during the negotiations.

The group has met in person five times in Washington since the November election, alternating between the Capitol Hill offices of Schumer and McCain. Participants include Democrats Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, Robert Menendez of New Jersey and Michael Bennet of Colorado, and Republicans Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Marco Rubio of Florida and Jeff Flake of Arizona.

Rubio, a conservative favorite widely seen as a potential contender for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, was asked to join the Senate group in early December. In their discussions, Rubio focused on strengthening employee-verification provisions and improving border security before the new class of immigrants could be eligible for citizenship, a Senate aide said.

So far, the group has negotiated legislative language on implementing the legalization program and on increasing border security, said a Senate aide familiar with the discussions. The senators will turn their attention next to details on how to increase the flow of legal immigration to reduce the incentive for illegal border crossings, the aide said.

One sticking point could be how the government decides the border is secure — the determination that would trigger the provisions allowing citizenship.

The senators have proposed a commission of border-state governors, attorneys general and community leaders to monitor border security. But if the government fails to meet the panel's standard, those granted the new probationary legal status could be living indefinitely as a second class of Americans, allowed to remain in the U.S. but unable to vote, enroll in Medicare or receive federal student loans.

Another issue involves establishing an exit-visa system to track when people leave the country. The proposal calls for exit visas at seaports and airports, but does not specify whether they also would be required at land border crossings, which could be considerably more expensive. A system for tracking when people leave is a priority for the senators, because about 40% of the country's estimated 11 million illegal immigrants entered with a legal visa and overstayed.

Even before the bipartisan plan's release, immigration experts have said the chances for reform are better than in previous years.

"When both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue are talking about the issue in calm tones but with a sense of urgency, that is the makings for legislative action," said Angela Kelley, an expert on immigration policy at the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank in Washington.

Both the White House and lawmakers seem to be moving fast to get a bill introduced, Kelley said, adding: "The players are about as caffeinated as I've seen them."

brian.bennett@latimes.com

lisa.mascaro@latimes.com

Christi Parsons in the Washington bureau contributed to this report.

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Violent protests greet Egypt emergency decree

CAIRO (Reuters) - A man was shot dead on Monday in a fifth day of violence in Egypt that has killed 50 people and prompted the Islamist president to declare a state of emergency in an attempt to end a wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world's biggest nation.

Under emergency powers announced by President Mohamed Mursi for the cities of Port Said, Ismailia and Suez on Sunday, the army will have the right to arrest civilians and to help police restore order.

A cabinet source told Reuters any trials would be before civilian courts, but the step is likely to anger protesters who accuse Mursi of using high-handed security tactics of the kind they fought against to oust president Hosni Mubarak.

Egypt's politics have become deeply polarized since those heady days two years ago, when protesters were making most of the running in the Arab Spring revolutions that sent shockwaves through the region.

Although Islamists have won parliamentary and presidential elections, the disparate opposition has since united against Mursi. Late last year he moved to expand his powers and push a constitution with Islamist leanings through a referendum punctuated by violent street protests.

Mursi's opponents accuse him of hijacking the revolution, listening only to his Islamist allies and breaking a promise to be a president for all Egyptians. They say too many hold-outs from the Mubarak era remain in their posts.

Islamists say their rivals want to overthrow by undemocratic means Egypt's first freely elected leader.

Some opposition groups have called for more protests in Cairo and elsewhere on Monday to mark the second anniversary of one of the bloodiest days in the revolution that erupted on January 25, 2011, and ended Mubarak's iron rule 18 days later.

Hundreds of demonstrators in Port Said, Ismailia and Suez, cities which all lie on the economically vital Suez Canal, turned out against Mursi's decision on Sunday within moments of him speaking. Activists there pledged to defy a curfew that starts at 9 p.m. (1700 GMT).

Instability in Egypt has raised concerns in Western capitals, where officials worry about the direction of a key regional player that has signed a peace deal with Israel.

The political unrest has been exacerbated by street violence linked to death penalties imposed on soccer supporters convicted of involvement in stadium rioting a year ago.

In Cairo on Monday, police fired volleys of teargas at stone-throwing protesters in and around Tahrir Square, cauldron of the anti-Mubarak uprising.

KILLED BY A GUNSHOT

A 46-year-old bystander was killed by a gunshot, a security source at the Interior Ministry said. It was not clear who fired the shot.

"We want to bring down the regime and end the state that is run by the Muslim Brotherhood," said Ibrahim Eissa, a 26-year-old cook, protecting his face from teargas wafting towards him.

Mursi also called for a national dialogue with his rivals for later on Monday, but the early response from members of the main opposition coalition suggested they saw little point.

Propelled to the presidency in a June election by the Muslim Brotherhood, Mursi has lurched through a series of political crises and violent demonstrations, complicating his task of shoring up the economy and preparing for a parliamentary election to cement the new democracy in a few months.

"The protection of the nation is the responsibility of everyone. We will confront any threat to its security with force and firmness within the remit of the law," Mursi said, offering condolences to families of victims in the canal zone cities.

Appealing to his opponents, the president called for a dialogue on Monday at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), inviting a range of Islamist allies as well as liberal, leftist and other opposition groups and individuals to discuss the crisis.

The main opposition National Salvation Front coalition said it would not attend.

Mursi's call to hold talks was "cosmetic and not substantive", a leading member of the coalition, Mohamed ElBaradei, told a news conference.

SECURITY MEASURES

The opposition Front has distanced itself from the latest flare-ups but said Mursi should have acted far sooner to impose security measures that would have ended the violence.

"Of course we feel the president is missing the real problem on the ground, which is his own policies," Front spokesman Khaled Dawoud said. "His call to implement emergency law was an expected move, given what is going on, namely thuggery and criminal activity."

But other activists said Mursi's measures to try to impose control on the turbulent streets could backfire.

"Martial law, state of emergency and army arrests of civilians are not a solution to the crisis," Ahmed Maher of the April 6 movement that helped galvanize the 2011 uprising said. "All this will do is further provoke the youth. The solution has to be a political one that addresses the roots of the problem."

Thousands of mourners joined funerals in Port Said for the latest victims in the Mediterranean port city. Seven people were killed there on Sunday when residents joined marches to bury 33 others who had been killed a day earlier, most by gunshot wounds in a city where arms are rife.

Protests erupted there on Saturday after a court sentenced to death several people from the city for their role in deadly soccer violence last year, a verdict residents saw as unfair. The anger swiftly turned against Mursi and his government.

Rights activists said Mursi's declaration was a backward step for Egypt, which was under emergency law for Mubarak's entire 30-year rule. His police used the sweeping arrest provisions to muzzle dissent and round up opponents, including members of the Brotherhood and even Mursi himself.

Heba Morayef of Human Rights Watch in Cairo said the police, still hated by many Egyptians for their heavy-handed tactics under Mubarak, would once again have the right to arrest people "purely because they look suspicious", undermining efforts to create a more efficient and respected police force.

"It is a classic knee-jerk reaction to think the emergency law will help bring security," she said. "It gives so much discretion to the Ministry of Interior that it ends up causing more abuse, which in turn causes more anger."

(Additional reporting by Yasmine Saleh in Cairo and Yusri Mohamed in Ismailia; Editing by Will Waterman and Giles Elgood)

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